Scottsdale Real Estate Heading Into 2026: What Buyers and Sellers Need to Know (and Why the Market Looks Stronger)

If you’ve been watching Scottsdale (and greater Arizona) real estate over the last couple of years, you’ve probably felt two things at once:

1. The market never “collapsed”—demand, lifestyle appeal, and long-term desirability stayed real.

2. The market did change—higher rates, affordability pressure, and buyer hesitation made everything feel slower and more negotiation-heavy.

Heading into 2026, the conversation is shifting again—this time in a reassuring direction. The most credible national forecasters are calling for more transactions, steady-to-modest price growth, and gradually improving affordability as mortgage rates ease from recent highs and more inventory comes to market.

This article is written for both homebuyers and home sellers, with Scottsdale as the anchor—while also touching on Cave Creek, Paradise Valley, Prescott, Flagstaff, and Tucson. My goal is simple: answer the questions people are actually asking, use reputable and current data, and translate what it means into practical steps you can take in 2026.

The Big Picture: Why 2026 Looks Like a “Market Regaining Strength”

When people say “the market is regaining strength,” they often mean one (or more) of these things:

• More buyers are willing to transact

• More sellers list (reducing the ‘lock-in’ paralysis)

• Homes are still holding value

• Negotiations feel fair—less chaotic, more predictable

• Rates aren’t perfect, but they’re less disruptive

• People can plan again

That’s exactly what the best data is pointing to.

Credible 2026 outlook signals (national, but relevant locally)

NAR (National Association of REALTORS®) is forecasting a meaningful pickup in activity in 2026. In their official 2026 outlook, NAR Chief Economist Lawrence Yun said, “Next year is really the year that we will see a measurable increase in sales.” (National Association of REALTORS®)

NAR’s projection: existing-home sales up ~14% in 2026, with home prices forecast to rise ~4% nationally. (National Association of REALTORS®)

Zillow expects a healthier market “warm up” in 2026, projecting:

• Home values +1.2% (U.S.)

• Existing home sales ~4.26M (+4.3% over 2025) (zillow.com)

Redfin is a bit more conservative on sales growth, forecasting existing home sales end 2026 up ~3% (annualized ~4.2M), and they cite an expected stronger spring partly because rates are predicted lower than spring 2025. (Redfin)

And importantly—this isn’t just forecast talk. At the end of 2025, pending home sales nationally jumped to their highest level in nearly three years, which NAR’s Lawrence Yun described as “Homebuyer momentum is building.” (Reuters)

That “momentum” matters because it often shows up before the headlines change.

“But This Is Scottsdale…” Yes—and That’s Why 2026 Can Be Especially Interesting Here

Scottsdale isn’t one market. It’s a set of micro-markets:

• Entry-level condos and townhomes (where affordability and HOA dynamics matter)

• Mid-market single-family neighborhoods (where competition returns first when rates ease)

• Luxury lifestyle corridors (Kierland, McCormick Ranch, Troon, DC Ranch, Silverleaf-adjacent patterns)

• Ultra-luxury and custom build segments (which often behave differently than the rest of the market)

So instead of treating Scottsdale like a single number, let’s ground the conversation in current observed trends and what they suggest for 2026.

Scottsdale snapshot (recent, measurable trend)

Redfin’s latest reported data shows that Scottsdale median sale price was about $900,000 in November 2025, up 4.7% year-over-year, with average days on market around 62. (Redfin)

That’s not a “weak market” signature. That’s a market that slowed, rebalanced, and kept its footing—exactly the kind of foundation that can support renewed activity when affordability improves.

The Questions on Everyone’s Mind (Buyers + Sellers)

Let’s tackle the most common “real” questions I hear—because 2026 planning gets easier once you’re clear on the mechanics.

1) “Should I wait for rates to fall?”

A lot of people have been waiting—and that’s part of what created a backlog of pent-up demand.

What credible forecasters are saying isn’t “rates are going back to 3%.” It’s more like:

• Rates may gradually improve

• Affordability may inch forward

• That’s enough to bring people off the sidelines

Zillow’s economists are explicit that mortgage rates are unlikely to fall below 6% in 2026. (zillow.com) NAR similarly frames 2026 as a modest improvement in rates (not a dramatic drop). (National Association of REALTORS®)

What that means in plain English:

Waiting for a massive rate plunge may keep you stuck. But planning for a slightly better rate environment—while negotiating price/terms smartly—can put you in position to act when the right home appears.

2) “Are prices going to drop in 2026?”

This is usually the biggest fear (buyers) and the biggest hope (some buyers), while sellers fear the opposite.

NAR’s Yun put it bluntly in their official release: “Home prices nationwide are in no danger of declining.” (National Association of REALTORS®)

Now—real estate is local. That doesn’t mean every neighborhood and price point rises every month. But it does reinforce what many Scottsdale sellers already sense: desirable locations with lifestyle demand tend to stay resilient, even when the market cools.

Zillow expects modest price growth nationally (+1.2%) and fewer major metros experiencing annual declines than in 2025. (zillow.com)

Takeaway: It’s less about “a crash” and more about “a more normal market”—where pricing has to be justified, condition matters, and negotiation is strategic.

3) “Is now a good time to sell, or should I hold?”

In 2026, the better question may be:

Can I position my home to stand out as more listings return to the market?

Because as affordability improves, two things typically happen at once:

• More buyers re-enter

• More sellers list (increasing competition)

For sellers, “good time to sell” becomes less about the calendar and more about:

• presentation

• pricing discipline

• repairs + inspection readiness

• marketing reach

• and a negotiation plan

4) “Will Scottsdale still attract out-of-state buyers in 2026?”

Scottsdale’s lifestyle magnetism doesn’t disappear because rates are 6-something. In fact, when the market rebalances, lifestyle markets can reassert themselves—especially for:

• relocation buyers

• cash buyers

• second-home buyers

• retirees (or near-retirees) optimizing quality of life

And remember: Redfin reports Scottsdale’s median price up year-over-year as of late 2025. (Redfin)
That suggests demand is still present—even after the market cooled from peak frenzy.

What “Regaining Strength” Looks Like in Practice for 2026

A more “normal” negotiation climate

2026 is shaping up to reward:

• well-prepared sellers (who treat pricing + condition seriously)

• well-advised buyers (who understand how to structure clean, compelling offers without overpaying)

You’re more likely to see:

• buyers asking for repairs again (especially on older homes)

• sellers offering credits strategically

• appraisal gaps becoming less common than in peak years

• more realistic timelines (not every home sells instantly)

More transactions (the market “moves” again)

Sales volume matters because it affects everything:

• comps

• confidence

• pricing accuracy

• days on market expectations

• the overall “feel” of the market

NAR is projecting a strong rebound in transactions nationally (+14%). (National Association of REALTORS®)
Zillow also expects more sales (+4.3%). (zillow.com)
Redfin expects a smaller but real rise (+3%). (Redfin)

Even if you believe the most conservative forecast, the direction is the same: more movement.

Scottsdale Micro-Markets: How 2026 May Play Out by Segment

1) Condos / townhomes: the affordability frontline

In 2026, these properties can benefit quickly from even modest affordability improvements—because the payment sensitivity is high.

Buyer strategy for 2026:

• Focus on HOA strength (budget, reserves, insurance posture)

• Compare total monthly cost (mortgage + HOA + taxes/insurance)

• Ask about recent special assessments and upcoming capital projects

Seller strategy for 2026:

• Preempt buyer concerns: HOA docs ready, clear disclosure, maintenance receipts

• Make the unit feel “turnkey” (paint, lighting, staging matters disproportionately here)

2) Move-up single-family homes: where “pent-up demand” shows first

As more sellers list and more buyers return, this segment can see:

• steadier showing traffic

• more “two-offer” situations (not 20-offer chaos)

• a return to seasonal patterns (spring becomes spring again)

3) Luxury / lifestyle: still strong, but pickier

Luxury in Scottsdale doesn’t vanish—buyers just become more selective.

In 2026, luxury buyers will likely continue to reward:

• modernized finishes (or pricing that reflects updates needed)

• clean inspection posture

• strong indoor/outdoor living

• privacy, views, and lot quality

• “ready now” homes (because many luxury buyers don’t want a year-long remodel)

For sellers in the $2M–$5M+ range, pricing precision becomes everything. The days of “let’s try a number and see” tend to get punished in balanced markets.

Neighboring Arizona Markets Worth Watching (and Why They Matter)

Scottsdale doesn’t exist in a vacuum. Many buyers compare Scottsdale with other Arizona options depending on lifestyle, climate, and budget.

Here are recent Redfin-reported snapshots (late 2025) and how they may translate into 2026 decision-making.

Cave Creek: lifestyle + land, with more variability

Redfin reports Cave Creek’s median sale price around $1.037M in Nov 2025, down year-over-year, with longer average days on market (mid-70s). (Redfin)

What that can mean in 2026:
Cave Creek can create opportunity for buyers who want land, views, and a different pace—especially if sellers are more negotiable. For sellers, it means presentation, pricing, and marketing quality matter even more.

Paradise Valley: ultra-prime, still its own universe

Redfin shows Paradise Valley’s median around $3.737M in Nov 2025, roughly flat to slightly down year-over-year, with faster days on market than prior year. (Redfin)

What that can mean in 2026:
PV often behaves differently because of the buyer profile (cash, equity-rich, ultra-high income). But even there, buyers are careful—expect scrutiny on condition, privacy, and architecture.

Prescott: value + lifestyle draw

Redfin shows Prescott’s median around $593K in Nov 2025, up year-over-year. (Redfin)

What that can mean in 2026:
Prescott remains a compelling “quality of life” alternative for buyers priced out of Scottsdale who still want a strong community, seasons, and charm.

Flagstaff: constrained supply, but more volatility in recent pricing

Redfin shows Flagstaff’s median around $647K in Nov 2025, down year-over-year. (Redfin)

What that can mean in 2026:
Flagstaff is highly sensitive to second-home dynamics, short-term rental regulation conversations, and limited inventory. Buyers can find opportunity when the market cools—sellers need to align price with reality, not memory.

Tucson: affordability advantage, different growth pattern

Redfin shows Tucson’s median around $321K in Nov 2025, down year-over-year. (Redfin)

What that can mean in 2026:
For buyers prioritizing affordability and character neighborhoods, Tucson can be attractive. In 2026, “regaining strength” may look like stabilization and steady absorption rather than rapid appreciation.

2026 Game Plan for Homebuyers in Scottsdale (Step-by-Step)

If you’re buying in 2026, the winning approach usually looks less like “timing the market” and more like “controlling what you can control.”

1) Get clarity on your real budget (not just pre-approval)

In a 6%+ mortgage environment, monthly payment comfort matters more than headline price.

Practical tip:

• Ask your lender to run scenarios at slightly different rates and down payments

• Decide what payment range still lets you live your life (travel, savings, kids’ activities)

2) Choose your “must-haves” vs “nice-to-haves”

In Scottsdale, buyers often get stuck between:

• location (schools, commute, restaurants, trails)

• home features (pool, yard, views, floorplan)

• condition (fully updated vs “good bones”)

In 2026, a balanced market gives you more room to choose—but you still need priorities.

3) Use the market’s new normal: inspections + smart negotiations

Because the market is less frenzied, inspection strategy returns as a key advantage:

• ask for meaningful repairs (health/safety, roof/HVAC, electrical)

• negotiate credits intelligently

• avoid nickel-and-diming that kills goodwill

4) Be ready for “good homes” to move faster than average

Even when the overall market is balanced, the best homes—well-priced, well-presented, in prime pockets—still move.

So the correct mindset is:

• “I can negotiate more than 2021”
  but also

• “I can’t assume every great listing will sit.”

2026 Game Plan for Home Sellers in Scottsdale (How to Win in a More Competitive Listing Landscape)

If more sellers list in 2026 (as forecasts suggest), you’ll want to behave like you’re competing—because you are.

1) Price for the market you’re in, not the market you remember

This is the #1 lever.

NAR’s national view is that prices remain supported, not collapsing. (National Association of REALTORS®)
But in Scottsdale, buyers are still rate-sensitive and value-aware. That means:

• price too high and you lose your “first impression window”

• price right and you attract the right traffic quickly

2) Condition matters more in 2026 than it did in the frenzy

In 2021–2022, buyers tolerated “good enough.” In a balanced market, they don’t.

High-ROI prep items for many Scottsdale homes:

• fresh interior paint (modern neutrals)

• lighting updates (especially dated fixtures)

• deep clean + windows

• pool serviced + staged outdoor living

• minor landscaping refresh (curb appeal photographs hugely)

3) Pre-listing strategy: reduce surprises without creating drama

You don’t need to “renovate everything.”
But you do want to know what buyers will find.

A good plan often includes:

• roof/HVAC service records ready

•  

• known issues addressed or priced in

• a clear disclosure posture

4) Marketing that matches Scottsdale expectations

In Scottsdale, presentation is part of value:

• strong photography

• lifestyle-forward positioning (indoor/outdoor, views, proximity to dining/shopping/trails)

• crisp listing copy that doesn’t oversell—but doesn’t undersell either

The Bottom Line: 2026 Is Shaping Up to Reward Preparedness

If you’re buying in 2026:

• You may get slightly better affordability conditions than peak 2025 (depending on rates and inventory). (zillow.com)

• You’ll likely have more negotiating room than the frenzy years, but you still need to move decisively for the best homes.

If you’re selling in 2026:

• Price stability and renewed transaction volume are supportive themes. (National Association of REALTORS®)

• But competition increases as more listings return—so prep, pricing, and marketing execution will separate the winners.

If you’re planning a move in Scottsdale (or comparing options in Cave Creek, Paradise Valley, Prescott, Flagstaff, or Tucson) heading into 2026, the smartest first step is a quick strategy conversation—because the right plan is different for every price point and timeline.

Jeff Barchi – RE/MAX Fine Properties can help you map out:

• the best timing for your goals

• pricing strategy (if selling)

• negotiation strategy (if buying)

• and a clear plan that fits the realities of 2026—without the stress

Call/text 602-558-5200 to talk through your next move.

Data note / disclaimer: Market figures cited above reflect the most recently published reporting available at the time of writing (late Dec 2025), including city-level housing-market trend summaries and national forecasts. Real estate is hyper-local; verify specifics for your neighborhood, property type, and price range with a local expert and your preferred lender.